Sent to clients Friday, September 25, 2026 · by Dan Casey
Three things crossed my desk this week, and not one of them requires you to do anything today.
1. Borrowing costs climbed, and the bond market noticed
The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate a quarter point on September 16 to a range of 3.75%–4%, its first increase since 2023, with updated projections pointing to the possibility of one more this year. The effect showed up in bonds this week: the 5-year Treasury yield touched 5% on Wednesday, its first time there since 2007, while stocks drifted sideways and Brent crude settled above $106. For retirees this cuts both ways in the same moment: new savings and new bonds are being issued at higher yields, while bonds you already own are worth less on paper if you sell them early.
2. The 2027 Social Security raise gets announced October 14
Social Security will publish next year's cost-of-living adjustment at 8:30 a.m. Eastern on October 14, right after the September inflation report. The Senior Citizens League currently estimates roughly 3.5%, compared with the 2.8% raise for 2026, though the official figure depends on the CPI-W — the inflation index for wage earners — averaged across July, August and September. It matters because the COLA sets your gross benefit, but what lands in your January deposit is that raise minus whatever Medicare takes out first.
3. Medicare's 2027 costs are coming into focus
Ahead of open enrollment, projections have the standard Part B premium rising $6.60 to about $209.50 a month, the Part B deductible moving up from $283, and the Part D deductible going from $615 to roughly $700. These remain estimates until CMS makes the numbers official this fall, so read your plan's Annual Notice of Change in October rather than a headline. One wrinkle worth knowing: IRMAA, the surcharge higher-income households pay on Parts B and D, is based on your 2025 tax return, so a Roth conversion or a home sale from two years ago can be what sets your 2027 premium.
What this means for you
The through-line this week is timing. Money you need in the next few years shouldn't care what the 5-year Treasury did on Wednesday, and money you won't touch for a decade shouldn't be repriced in your head every time oil moves. The Social Security and Medicare numbers are the opposite kind of item — they are arithmetic, they arrive on a calendar, and you can plan around them. Knowing which bucket a dollar lives in, and what your own tax picture looks like two years back and two years forward, is the kind of thing we look at in a review.
If you want to talk to Dan, book a time here.
Sources: CNBC, Fed rate decision, Sept 16, 2026; Federal Reserve implementation note, Sept 16, 2026; TheStreet market wrap, Sept 23, 2026; Bloomberg markets, Sept 24, 2026; Motley Fool, 2027 COLA announcement date, Sept 19 and Sept 22, 2026; AARP COLA preview, Sept 2026; Yahoo Finance, Medicare changes for 2027, Sept 2026; Kiplinger, projected 2027 IRMAA brackets, Sept 2026.
This update is educational and is not investment, tax, or legal advice. Investment advisory services offered through Bridgeriver Advisors LLC, a registered investment adviser. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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